November 19, 2020

COVID: The data you didn’t want to see. Ripping through Europe, New Surge virus dwarfs first stage.

COVID: The data you didn’t want to see. Ripping through Europe, New Surge virus dwarfs first stage.

Coronavirus second wave:

Countries across Europe are seeing a resurgence in COVID-19 cases after successfully slowing outbreaks early in the year.

The vast majority of countries are declaring more cases each day now than they were during the first wave earlier this year.

Much has been said of an approaching “second wave” of the virus as countries, states, and cities decide to cease their stay-at-home restrictions and “reopen for business.”

Many areas already have reported a rebound in the numbers of cases as a consequence. The advent of a “second wave” worldwide already is suggested by the recent uptick in daily death statistics worldwide

If so, it will only be a matter of time until a similar “second wave” in the US begins to show up in the statistics,8 for, as already observed, the world has been running rather ahead of the US in the evolution of the virus as a result of getting an earlier start. So, why is the number of deaths declining, whereas the number of cases continues to increase at essentially the same rate? On the one hand it may be that the increase incises is to some degree a result of better reporting and diagnosis procedures. And on the other hand, the declining number of deaths may be related to the stay-at-home policies that many countries have instituted.

But it also is possible that other factors are at play that many as the gradual development of “herd immunity” (AKA “social immunity”) as more and more people either have survived the virus or been exposed to varying degrees of it --it has been shown that a tremendously greater number of people than originally thought has been exposed to the virus, even just a few environs And such as the virus initially having its greatest effect upon more vulnerable members of society, such as the elderly those with underlying health issues, and those living in very close quarters, as in rest homes or prisons.

One big problem with this method is that it is cumulative, so the longer the record, the longer it takes for recent changes to show up in the overall record. In addition, the number of cases and number of deaths are not synchronized.

There always is a lag of two weeks or more between the time a case is initially reported (number of cases) and the time case terminates with a death (number of deaths). If the mortality rate increases, it is not because the disease is becoming more virulent (the overall mortality rate remains the same), but because the number of deaths it is “catching up” and increasing proportionally more rapidly than the number of cases.

Even as states move ahead with plans to reopen their economies, the director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention warned Tuesday that a second wave of the novel coronavirus will be far more dire because it is likely to coincide with the start of flu season.

“There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” CDC Director Robert Redfield said in an interview with The Washington Post. “And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean.”

“We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said.

Even as states move ahead with plans to reopen their economies, the director of the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention warned Tuesday that a second wave of the novel coronavirus will be far more dire because it is likely to coincide with the start of flu season.

“There’s a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through,” CDC Director Robert Redfield said in an interview with The Washington Post. “And when I’ve said this to others, they kind of put their head back, they don’t understand what I mean.”

“We’re going to have the flu epidemic and the coronavirus epidemic at the same time,” he said.

Conclusions These observations suggest several general conclusions about the spread of the virus during the past few months in the US as compared to the rest of the world. The surge incises and deaths in the US as of the second week of April began a good month and a half after the initial surge worldwide, and initially there were several disparities in the statistical progress of the disease worldwide and in the US. In the US, for example, the disease blossomed much more quickly than it had in the rest of the world, fuelled, one might suggest by the slowness of the US response. In addition, initially the percentage of deaths versus recovered was much higher in the US.

And something of a mystery is an overall rise in the daily number of world cases as opposed to a decline in the number of US cases. But in most regards, over the past few months the world and US statistics have become increasingly synchronized. Mortality rates worldwide and in the US based noncumulative deaths, which peaked at 7% worldwide and about 5.5% in the US, have been inching closer together and will meet soon at about 5%.

Mortality rates based on daily deaths, after peaking for both the world and the US at just under 9% have dropped and coalesced at 3.5%. But mortality rates based on cumulative and daily deaths are inherently flawed because of the lack of synchronicity between cases and deaths. Analysing “serious “versus “mild” cases, on the other hand, yields a death rate that now has dropped to about1.5%, which probably is closer to the truth as a measure of the mortality rate of reported cases.

Adding unreported cases to the mix will greatly reduce the mortality rate even further, to less than 1%.Other measurements, such as recovery rates, the percentage of deaths versus the percentage of recovered, and the US percentages of worldwide cases and deaths, also show increasing synchronicity between the progress of the disease worldwide and in the US. After its initial isolation from the rest of the world, the US clearly now has become part of World Virus Community. Meaning that we can expect worldwide developments to be replicated in the US. Which is why the recent uptick in daily deaths worldwide, which may portend the arrival of the predicted “second wave,” ought to serve as a warning in the US. Finally, predictions based on the application of several models suggest that the total death tolls this year will reach between 1,350,000 and 1,500,000 worldwide, and between 317,000 and 450,000 for the US.

For comparative purposes, the annual US death rates for other diseases include 650,000 from heart disease, 600,000 from cancer, 160,000 from lower respiratory diseases, 146,000 from stroke, 121,000 from Alzheimer’s Disease,84,000 from diabetes, and 55,000 from flu and pneumonia.20 The predicted number of deaths from Covid-19 thus would make it one of the most virulent maladies ever. Citation: Ralph W. Mathison, “A Look at the Spread of Covid-19: What it Means for thus, “Academia.edu” website [15 June 2020]

Abstract Reports on the continuing spread of the Covid-19 disease pervade the news media, but these reports are very impressionistic. Statistical material is rudimentary at best, consisting primarily of dramatic reports on rising numbers of cases and deaths. Even though daily statistics on numbers of cases of deaths, recovery rates, and mild vs serious cases are readily available, virtually no comprehensive statistical study has been done of these numbers to see what they can tell us about the nature of the spread of the disease in general, and the impact of the disease on the US in particular.

This study is one of the first comprehensive statistical analyses of the daily spread of the disease. Although it uncovers several significant disparities between the statistics in the world and US, more significantly it demonstrates how the US has become integrated into a Global Virus Community, in which there now is a general synchronicity between the statistics in the world and the US. That means that if there is a trend worldwide, it also will be replicated in the US. This study predicts that the overall mortality rate will fall below 1.0%, and that by the end of December the total number of deaths worldwide will be between 1,350,000 and 1,500,000,and in the US will be between 317,000 and 450,000

Source

A_Statistical_Look_at_the_Spread_of_Covid_19_What_it_Means_for_the_US

“Deaths and Mortality,” CDC Website: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm, data for